WHAT IS WRONG WITH THE JAYS?

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As I write this here today, the Blue Jays sit 7.5 games back of the AL East Lead, with a pathetic 5-13 record so far in this young season. For a team coming off back-to-back ALCS appearances, this is pretty concerning. Baseball is tough to analyze and react because of its inherently long, tiring season and whatever stretch we look at is ultimately a very small sample size. So take whatever is being written with a grain of salt, or just full well knowing that I’m aware that there’s still 9 / 10 of the season that remains.

Hitting

The team ranks 25th overall in average (.223), 27th in RBI (60), and 28th in OPS (.639). When you’re in the bottom dwelling of those categories, it’s no surprise that the team’s record is what it is. I’m not going to cast blame on Kendrys Morales because he’s been one of the very few Jays that have performed so far. And the team has been ravaged in injuries, but certain players really aren’t earning their paycheque so far. Jose Bautista is hitting just .132, with 1 home run and 4 rbi… At the current rate he is on pace for 9 home runs and 36 RBI. He’s a streaky player and I don’t think that will be the case, but as our leader and a guy battling for a contract next year he simply isn’t doing enough. With Donaldson and Tulo out, if we don’t have our biggest bats performing then we can expect more of the same. The main issue, however, is that the jays poor bats didn’t come out of nowhere- this is an issue that arose in the last 2 months of last season. Failing to get timely runs, especially with runners in scoring position was a problem that was prevalent back on August 1st, 2016. The frustrating part is that management did very little to address those red flags, save for letting one of the best sluggers in the game leave for Cleveland.

Pitching

ERA 4.11 (20th)

OPP AVG: .250 (22ND)

WHIP: 1.30 (20TH)

STRIKEOUTS: 151 (16TH)

I find these stats to be somewhat predictable as there was no way all of our pitchers would continue at the level they were at last year. You knew that Happ and Estrada would regress somewhat, and conversely that Stroman would bounce back. The pitching should slightly improve once we Sanchez and Happ back from the DL.

NHL 2ND ROUND PREDICTIONS

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PENS vs CAPS – Penguins in 6

The one takeaway I took from the Capitals having to beat the Leafs in 6 games, with 5 of those games going into Overtime…is that the Capitals just aren’t that good. Let me phrase that actually, they just aren’t that good -- in the postseason. The team has a ton of depth and on paper should likely be the favourites to win the Cup this year. But considering they’ve never made it past the 2nd round in the Ovechkin era… and that they’re going up against a Pens team that has done it before, I’ve changed my tune on them. All it takes is an explosion from Ovi or Backstrom to change my mind, but here’s the thing: I don’t know if that will happen. The Capitals tend to disappear for stretches of games this time of year. What I do know is that Crosby, Malkin and Kessel will continue their offensive dominance from the 1st round. So I’m going to go with what I know…Pittsburgh in 6 games.

SENATORS vs RANGERS – Senators in 6

This is a tricky matchup as I really didn’t have a lot of faith in the Sens in the 1st round against the Bruins. I didn’t expect Bobby Ryan to completely redeem his nightmare of a regular season, to transform into being a playoff hero. I didn’t expect Clarke MacArthur to ever play hockey again, never mind score game winning, and series clinching goals. I didn’t expect Erik Karlsson to dominate the series with 2 hairline fractures, or Craig Anderson to be able to only focus on hockey, despite what is going on with his personal life. I underestimated the Sens and I won’t be doing that again (in this series at least).

DUCKS vs OILERS – Ducks in 7

The Edmonton Oilers have been the feel good story so far in this postseason. Everyone wants them to advance and ultimately face the Penguins in the finals to have that Crosby vs McDavid narrative. I Hope it happens…but I just don’t see it this year. The Ducks are a powerful, explosive team with a lot of depth. They have the experience and the skill, whereas the Oilers only have half that equation.

BLUES vs PREDS – Preds in 6

Jake Allen surely can’t continue this pace that he’s on. Goalies have gotten hot in the postseason before but I just can’t see him carrying over his .956 SAVE% against the same team who just swept the Blackhawks. The Preds are my pick to come out of the West after seeing what they did in the first round. Their weapons are scary good.

NBA WEST CONFERENCE 1ST ROUND

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WARRIORS vs TRAIL BLAZERS – Warriors in 5

The Warriors are obviously looking ahead to bigger and tougher matchups, so it will be difficult to keep focus on the games at hand. That’s why I’m giving Portland a game, well… that and Damian Lillard who is one of the best young talents in the game. However, we all know the Warriors are headed to the Finals for a trilogy rematch with the Cavs so let’s just skip right ahead.

SPURS vs GRIZZLIES – Spurs in 4

The Spurs should make quick work of the Grizzlies who just barely made it over .500 this season. Kawhi Leonard has been overshadowed for MVP this season, with the Westbrook and Harden battle all year long. Leonard is guaranteed to make a huge impact. And if there’s one constant in all of sports, it’s that the Spurs will go deep into the playoffs.

ROCKETS vs THUNDER – Rockets in 7

This is a sexy matchup for obvious reasons – Westbrook vs Harden. Yes the MVP award is decided in the regular season but I wish this year they would extend it into the playoffs for this very reason. This should be the best series and an exciting one at that, although probably predictable. The Rockets are focused on winning, and Russell is focused on his stats, despite whatever he says otherwise. It should go back and forth with the better team pulling out, especially at home.

CLIPPERS vs JAZZ – CLIPPERS in 7

So long as everyone on the Clippers stay healthy, then LA should come out the victors here. Bu that is a huge asterisks on the phrase, “so long.” Lob City always seem to suffer injuries to their integral players at this time of the year for whatever reason. If Griffin and Paul and battle through, then look for the Clippers to advance to the next round….where they will probably lose to whoever they’re facing at that point.

NBA EAST CONFERENCE 1ST ROUND

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RAPTORS vs BUCKS – Raps in 6

Hometown bias aside, the Raptors are genuinely the better team in this matchup, despite the Bucks having the best player between the 2 teams. Giannis Antetokoumpo is a beast that can do everything on both Offence and Defence, but he can’t do it alone. Brogdon and Middleton should help, but if those 2 are your 2nd and 3rd best player than the Raptors should be able to handle them with ease. The only reason I don’t give the Raps less games to get through is because they always seem to struggle out of the gate. Game 1’s are not friendly to the Raptors, but they usually seem to pull it together at some point.

CAVALIERS vs PACERS – Cavs in 5

Lebron James hasn’t lost a 1st round playoff game since 2012, and I find it hard to believe that trend can continue…I mean, he has to lose 1, right? This matchup should go quickly as the Cavaliers are a substantially better team, despite struggling down the stretch like they have.

CELTICS vs BULLS – Celtics in 6

This would be a much more one-sided affair, if the tragic news of Isaiah Thomas’ sister suddenly passing wouldn’t play such an obvious factor. I’m not sure what the emotional and mental state of the Celtic’s best player is in, and how it will affect the series going forward, but if we’re playing this game on paper: the Celtics win easily.

WIZARDS vs HAWKS – Wizards in 6

The Wizards backcourt can’t be denied with Beal and Wall doing what they do every year. It should be a back and forth series with the home team winning most games until the Wizards eventually pull ahead. Washington was just a victory shy of a 50-win season, something that is terribly overshadowed in the East.

NHL EAST PLAYOFF MATCHUPS

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If I got to choose a coast I got to choose the East. I live out here, so don't go there.

CANADIENS vs RANGERS – Habs in 6

The Rangers are arguably the better team on paper, and they have loads of depth. (Zuccarello, Kreider, Nash, etc.) But the reason I’m going with Montreal is that these are the NHL Playoffs and goalies are known for stealing series’. So I have elected to go with the best goaltender in the world to steal this series. When he’s zoned in, there is simply no one better. It should be a tight back and forth series, but Carey should be able pave the way with the seasoned big game player that Shea Weber is, right by his side.

CAPITALS vs LEAFS – Caps in 5

Sadly, I can’t say this series will be as close as the aforementioned Habs – Rangers one. The Capitals are just a better team in every aspect. Goaltending, Forward Depth, Defence, Playoff Experience, etc. If the Leafs manage to make this a series then that is a huge feat in it’s own right. Hopefully the young guns acclimatize to the postseason smoothly.

SENATORS vs BRUINS – Bruins in 7

This is an interesting matchup as the Bruins are a much better team on paper, but the Sens have swept the season series. The Bruins are a dangerous team but they don’t have much depth. Beyond Marchand, Pastrnak, Krejci and Bergeron, their offence is pretty dry. The Senators on the other hand have plenty of depth but no real game changers other than Karlsson, who is currently battling an ankle injury. That’s not good news for someone who is expected to play at least 30 minutes a game. This should be the tightest series in the entire 1st round – I’ll ultimately give the Bruins the win in 7 games because of their experience.

PENGUINS vs BLUE JACKETS – Pens in 6

I’m actually being pretty generous to the Blue Jackets. The Penguins could easily sweep them but Sergei Bobrovsky is likely going to win the Vezina this season, so something has to be said for that. No one expected Columbus to be here in the postseason so they are essentially playing with house money – just don’t tell John Tortorella that fact. Pens take this one, but I’ll give a game or 2 to the Jackets at home.

NHL WEST PLAYOFF MATCHUPS

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BLACKHAWKS vs PREDATORS – Hawks in 5

This matchup really favours the Blackhawks in many ways. The Preds D-men are pretty offensive focused: Josi, Ellis, Subban, etc. Their relaxed defensive ways might be in for a rude welcome when they go into Chicago to face a team that can roll 4 lines of championship veteran forwards that can snipe on command. Subban’s -8 rating is a troubling sign for what’s to come.

WILD vs BLUES – Blues in 6

The Wild stumble into the postseason having lost an incredible amount of games in the season’s 2nd half. If you believe in momentum, then betting on the Wild would not be a wise choice. Throw into the picture the fact that Bruce Boudreau has always struggled to get his team to go far into the playoffs for whatever reason. Meantime, the Blues have always underachieved with more or less the same lineup. I’m liking Tarasenko to put his stamp on this series and be the X-factor. But truthfully this series could go either way.

DUCKS vs FLAMES – Ducks in 5

The Ducks own the Flames at home more than any team has dominated their opponent in recent history. They’re simply a better team on and off the scoresheet. Calgary is still young and should be back many more times, but this is not their year, sorry to say.

OILERS vs SHARKS – Oilers in 7

I can’t wait to see what this young Oilers team can do in the postseason. If Connor can somehow take his game to the next level then that could be a scary sight for opposing goalies. The checking is much tighter and more fierce in the NHL’s 2nd season so I’m not sure if McDavid can dominate the way he has been all year long, but with the elite play of Cam Talbot I’m certain Edmonton can take on a very old San Jose team.

Mastering the Masters

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If you would’ve asked me last week who I thought would win the upcoming Masters tournament, I probably would’ve told you the same answer a lot of people had on their mind; Dustin Johnson. But the #1 golfer in the world, the odds on favourite to win the Augusta Major, will not be participating in the tourney. DJ allegedly fell down his stairs in his rental home, and injured his back in a freak accident. Johnson tried to play but eventually pulled out at the first Tee, as the pain was just too much. So, this begs the question – who is now the favourite? Who do I like to win it all? Dustin was previously the 5/1 odds on winner, so now the market will be adjusted. Here are some picks that I think could make a strong run:

Bubba Watson: Bubba has 2 green jackets to his name already, and experience is everything when it comes to these majors. He’s had a relatively quiet year but is due to make an explosion back to the scene.

Rory McIlroy: Rory improved to a 7/1 favourite once the Johnson injury came to fruition. Rory can make a huge run when he’s locked in. He’s never a bad pick.

Adam Hadwin: Aside from Mike Weir, Canadians typically don’t do too well in majors, but he is fresh off of his 1st pga tournament win and momentum could carry him into a top-10 finish. That would do wonders for his confidence, and his world ranking.

Justin Rose: He seemingly always finds himself in the top 10 finishes in these type of tournaments, yet can never finish it off. Look for him for good value to finish high.

Jordan Spieth: At his best, there is maybe no one better right now. He’s had some crazy dramatic meltdowns, but he’s also finished the job – including his Masters win 2 years ago.

…….and when all else fails just pick Phil. If nothing else, Lefty is fun to watch and is probably the most entertaining golfer out there now that Tiger and DJ aren’t making an appearance.

AL EAST PREDICTIONS

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1. Red Sox – Boston’s rotation goes as follows: Rick Porcello (last year’s Cy Young Winner), Chris Sale (the biggest offseason addition), David Price (needs no introduction to Jays fans), Steven Wright (the best knuckleballer in the game, apologies to R.A Dickey) and either Eduardo Rodriguez or Drew Pomeranz to fill out the 5-spot. That is pretty insane…and that is why I have Boston leading the division.

2. Orioles – It’s the same old story with Baltimore; their rotation sucks (on paper at least) but they have the best mashers in the game in Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo, Adam Jones, Manny Machado, etc. and one of the best closers we’ve seen in years in Zach Britton. If their Starters can be even slightly mediocre then they should be good enough to challenge Boston for 1st in the AL East.

3. Blue Jays – The Jays are an interesting team. Their rotation is due for some regression from last year’s surprising numbers, but conversely, their batters should bounce back. Morales should put up a huge year, batting 81 games at the Rogers Centre, and a hopefully healthy Bautista and Tulo should do some damage together. Donaldson should continue to do what he’s done the last couple seasons, despite a calf issue that has plagued him during spring training. But if it’s a season long nagging injury, the Jays may have to look to the Wild Card for any hopes of a postseason run.

4. Yankees – It seems that the Yankees are in fake rebuild mode. With a mix of veterans (Matt Holiday) and young players (Greg Bird), the Bronx Bombers seem like their just biding their time for the epic free agency year of 2018 aka the Bryce Harper sweepstakes. They could surprise a few teams but I’d be shocked if they are several games above .500 if at all. The re-signing of Chapman will likely help them out a bit.  

5. Rays – Colby Rasmus is not the answer to this team’s woes. With the exception of Longoria and Chris Archer, there is not much to see here at the Trop. If they finish anywhere other than 5th that would be a big shock to everyone else in this division.