NHL 2ND ROUND PREDICTIONS

 

PENS vs CAPS – Penguins in 6

The one takeaway I took from the Capitals having to beat the Leafs in 6 games, with 5 of those games going into Overtime…is that the Capitals just aren’t that good. Let me phrase that actually, they just aren’t that good -- in the postseason. The team has a ton of depth and on paper should likely be the favourites to win the Cup this year. But considering they’ve never made it past the 2nd round in the Ovechkin era… and that they’re going up against a Pens team that has done it before, I’ve changed my tune on them. All it takes is an explosion from Ovi or Backstrom to change my mind, but here’s the thing: I don’t know if that will happen. The Capitals tend to disappear for stretches of games this time of year. What I do know is that Crosby, Malkin and Kessel will continue their offensive dominance from the 1st round. So I’m going to go with what I know…Pittsburgh in 6 games.

 

SENATORS vs RANGERS – Senators in 6

This is a tricky matchup as I really didn’t have a lot of faith in the Sens in the 1st round against the Bruins. I didn’t expect Bobby Ryan to completely redeem his nightmare of a regular season, to transform into being a playoff hero. I didn’t expect Clarke MacArthur to ever play hockey again, never mind score game winning, and series clinching goals. I didn’t expect Erik Karlsson to dominate the series with 2 hairline fractures, or Craig Anderson to be able to only focus on hockey, despite what is going on with his personal life. I underestimated the Sens and I won’t be doing that again (in this series at least).

 

DUCKS vs OILERS – Ducks in 7

The Edmonton Oilers have been the feel good story so far in this postseason. Everyone wants them to advance and ultimately face the Penguins in the finals to have that Crosby vs McDavid narrative. I Hope it happens…but I just don’t see it this year. The Ducks are a powerful, explosive team with a lot of depth. They have the experience and the skill, whereas the Oilers only have half that equation.

 

BLUES vs PREDS – Preds in 6

Jake Allen surely can’t continue this pace that he’s on. Goalies have gotten hot in the postseason before but I just can’t see him carrying over his .956 SAVE% against the same team who just swept the Blackhawks. The Preds are my pick to come out of the West after seeing what they did in the first round. Their weapons are scary good.

NHL EAST PLAYOFF MATCHUPS

NHL EAST PLAYOFF MATCHUPS

If I got to choose a coast I got to choose the East. I live out here, so don't go there.

CANADIENS vs RANGERS – Habs in 6

The Rangers are arguably the better team on paper, and they have loads of depth. (Zuccarello, Kreider, Nash, etc.) But the reason I’m going with Montreal is that these are the NHL Playoffs and goalies are known for stealing series’. So I have elected to go with the best goaltender in the world to steal this series. When he’s zoned in, there is simply no one better. It should be a tight back and forth series, but Carey should be able pave the way with the seasoned big game player that Shea Weber is, right by his side.

 

CAPITALS vs LEAFS – Caps in 5

Sadly, I can’t say this series will be as close as the aforementioned Habs – Rangers one. The Capitals are just a better team in every aspect. Goaltending, Forward Depth, Defence, Playoff Experience, etc. If the Leafs manage to make this a series then that is a huge feat in it’s own right. Hopefully the young guns acclimatize to the postseason smoothly.

 

SENATORS vs BRUINS – Bruins in 7

This is an interesting matchup as the Bruins are a much better team on paper, but the Sens have swept the season series. The Bruins are a dangerous team but they don’t have much depth. Beyond Marchand, Pastrnak, Krejci and Bergeron, their offence is pretty dry. The Senators on the other hand have plenty of depth but no real game changers other than Karlsson, who is currently battling an ankle injury. That’s not good news for someone who is expected to play at least 30 minutes a game. This should be the tightest series in the entire 1st round – I’ll ultimately give the Bruins the win in 7 games because of their experience.

 

PENGUINS vs BLUE JACKETS – Pens in 6

I’m actually being pretty generous to the Blue Jackets. The Penguins could easily sweep them but Sergei Bobrovsky is likely going to win the Vezina this season, so something has to be said for that. No one expected Columbus to be here in the postseason so they are essentially playing with house money – just don’t tell John Tortorella that fact. Pens take this one, but I’ll give a game or 2 to the Jackets at home.

NHL WEST PLAYOFF MATCHUPS

NHL WEST PLAYOFF MATCHUPS

BLACKHAWKS vs PREDATORS – Hawks in 5

This matchup really favours the Blackhawks in many ways. The Preds D-men are pretty offensive focused: Josi, Ellis, Subban, etc. Their relaxed defensive ways might be in for a rude welcome when they go into Chicago to face a team that can roll 4 lines of championship veteran forwards that can snipe on command. Subban’s -8 rating is a troubling sign for what’s to come.

 

WILD vs BLUES – Blues in 6

The Wild stumble into the postseason having lost an incredible amount of games in the season’s 2nd half. If you believe in momentum, then betting on the Wild would not be a wise choice. Throw into the picture the fact that Bruce Boudreau has always struggled to get his team to go far into the playoffs for whatever reason. Meantime, the Blues have always underachieved with more or less the same lineup. I’m liking Tarasenko to put his stamp on this series and be the X-factor. But truthfully this series could go either way.

 

DUCKS vs FLAMES – Ducks in 5

The Ducks own the Flames at home more than any team has dominated their opponent in recent history. They’re simply a better team on and off the scoresheet. Calgary is still young and should be back many more times, but this is not their year, sorry to say.

 

OILERS vs SHARKS – Oilers in 7

I can’t wait to see what this young Oilers team can do in the postseason. If Connor can somehow take his game to the next level then that could be a scary sight for opposing goalies. The checking is much tighter and more fierce in the NHL’s 2nd season so I’m not sure if McDavid can dominate the way he has been all year long, but with the elite play of Cam Talbot I’m certain Edmonton can take on a very old San Jose team.

Deadline Deals

Deadline Deals

Moves I like

Mark Streit to Penguins – The Penguins backline has been enigmatic this season; dangerously offensive, yet often injured. Kris Letang has an undisclosed injury and has been in and out of the lineup all year. Streit could easily replace his veteran presence as the point shot on the blueline, as he has been for so many years with the Flyers, and Islanders before that. I love this pickup by the Pens.

Alex Burrows to Senators – The lifelong Canuck brings a certain feistiness that the Sens are pretty used to (see Chris Neil). He’s a talented player that could easily put the puck in the net with the right teammates. A change of scenery will likely help Burrows to revitalize his career.

Thomas Vanek to Panthers – This is a very underrated pickup for a bubble team trying to make a push into the playoffs. At his best, he’s one the most explosive players in the league. He’s had plenty of postseason experience in the past – typically a rental player for playoff bound teams. He should improve Florida’s offence in a big way.

Moves I don’t

Curtis Lazar to Flames – This might be a low risk move for Calgary but I don’t really see much upside to Lazar’s game. He put up just 1 point in 33 games for the Senators this year so he’s not exactly the sexiest pick. I can’t see him fitting into an already young flames team that relies heavily on their chemistry.

Drew Stafford to Bruins – Every single year Winnipeg ships off one of their productive players around this time. When will the turnaround finally happen? I just don’t like this move because it symbolizes another failed season for the Jets, and I really want them to end this extremely slow rebuild.

Steve Ott to Canadiens – On a team that struggles to score I’m not sure this is the answer…that’s all I have to say about that.

NHL 2nd Half Lookahead

As the Nhl’s unofficial 2nd half begins we take a look at where the Canadian teams stand and how they’ve performed so far this season. Compared to this point last year where 0 Canadian teams made the postseason for the first time in about 40 years…I’d say it was a pretty decent review…it’s Report Card Time!

The Ottawa senators have exceeded all expectations so far this season, all while doing so without some notable players: Craig Anderson has played in just 19 games due to personal reasons, Clarke Macarthur never played a game, and their highest paid player Bobby Ryan, has recorded just 19 points. But with all that, the Sens find themselves in 2nd place in the Atlantic Division, threatening for the Division lead. Watch out for the Sensations. 

Our next stop is in Oil town, where the young guns looks like they have arrived… with the added elite play of Cam Talbot, and solid offseason acquisitions that have seemed to have worked out (Lucic, Larsson), Edmonton finds themselves currently tied for 1st in the Pacific Division. The last time the oilers were in a playoff spot this late into the year, it was the 2009 season… it took a long time but it appears the turnaround has finally begun.

Next up… les Habitans. The Habs have cooled off a bit since their great start, but still remain in 1st place in their division and destined for a playoff berth. It’s been a tale of 2 seasons for Montreal, going 17-6-2 in their 1st 25 games, followed by 12-8-5 in their next 25, but it’s worth noting that no Canadian team has dealt with more key injuries. The expectations for this team are high, and their window to win is shrinking.

Leafs nation has to be pleased with what they’ve seen in the first half; Toronto’s kids have been dominating the league this season, exceeding all the expectations from experts to fans alike – who were preparing themselves for another top 5 pick. With Nazem Kadri playing the best hockey of his career, and Freddy Andersen earning every cent of his new contract, the leafs are threatening for a playoff spot… and would be in one if they hadn’t blown several winnable games this season.

Let’s head west to Vancouver, where the Canucks are, believe it or not, just 1 point out of a wild card spot. At one point this season there was a “willie watch” and a desperate cry from ‘nucks nation to start the rebuild. The Canucks have struggled to score this season and that may ultimately be their downfall. But for a team to make the postseason that many expected to finish as a bottom 5 team, they have to get some credit.

The Calgary flames enter the 2nd half clinging onto the last wild card spot, having lost 7 of their last 10 games, and scoring just 4 goals in 3 games on their last Canadian road trip. Unfortunately their big offseason acquisition of Brian Elliott has not panned out exactly as the flames had hoped. But after a 26th place finish last season, Calgary has exceeded some expectations and have shown flashes that they deserve to be where they are in the standings.

Last but not least, the Winnipeg jets, who have struggled all year with their goaltending woes. Hutchinson, Hellebuyck, and now the recently recalled Pavelec have all attempted to right the ship, and have all ostensibly come up short. The Jets have proven they can score goals, but not at the pace they let them into their own net; a minus 11 goal differential can be problematic. The Jets are the only Canadian team with an under .500 record, but like most, are still within striking range of the wild card.

NHL 1st Half Thoughts

Sidney Crosby is still the best player on the planet

Can we please put this conversation to bed? For some reason everyone wants the new wave of young blood to take over the torch…but it’s just not happening…yet. Sid the kid (who is almost 30) had probably the best year any hockey player could possibly have: Stanley Cup, World Cup, and MVP’s in both tournaments. And he currently leads the league in goals in much fewer games than anyone else. 

But Connor McDavid is not far behind

Although Crosby isn’t ready to hand over the crown, in just his 2nd season, Connor McDavid looks like he’s right there and ready to grasp at greatness. Leading the league in points for most of the season, Connor simply looks a level above everyone he plays with / against.  When Crosbystarts to slow down, McDavid will be ready to be crowned for many different accolades. 

The Canadiens are coming out of the East

Last year the Habs suffered a huge loss with Carey Price going down for the season and simply could not recover – they promptly plummeted down the standings and easily missed the playoffs. This year, however, they suffered through the injury bug as well (Desharnais, Shaw, Markov, Galchenyuk) and have come through it looking no worse for wear. If the Habs took lessons from last year’s adversity, then they will have no problem getting out of the East Conference.

The Leafs are making the playoffs…next year

This team isn’t just exciting…they’re good! What the leafs lack in experience, they make up for in offensive upside. The Buds lead the league in most points among rookies with 118, the next highest team being the Winnipeg Jets with 43. They’ve blown too many games late in the 3rd period this year, but with valuable lessons learned, Toronto should be primed to take next step the following year. 

NHL Goalie Power Rankings

  1. Carey Price (MTL)
  2. Braden Holtby (WS)
  3. Henrik Lunqvist (NYR)
  4. Tuukka Rask (BOS)
  5. Pekka Rinne (NSH)
  6. Jonathan Quick (LA)
  7. Sergei Bobrovsky (CBJ)
  8. Ben Bishop (TB)
  9. Cory Schneider (NJ)
  10. Corey Crawford (CHI)
  11. Craig Anderson (OTT)
  12. Ryan Miller (VAN)
  13. Devan Dubnyk (MIN)
  14. Roberto Luongo (FLA)
  15. John Gibson (ANA)
  16. Cam Ward (CAR)
  17. Jake Allen (STL)
  18. Semyon Varlamov (COL)
  19. Jimmy Howard (DET)
  20. Cam Talbot (EDM)
  21. Martin Jones (SJ)
  22. Jaroslav Halak (NYI)
  23. Kari Lehtonen (DAL)
  24. Frederik Andersen (TOR)
  25. Matt Murray (PIT)
  26. Brian Elliott (CGY)
  27. Steve Mason (PHI)
  28. Connor Hellebuyck (WPG)
  29. Mike Smith (PHX)
  30. Robin Lehner (BUF)

Kat-Trick’s Hockey Picks

As the quarter-mark of the NHL season quickly approaches it’s about time I make my end of year predictions so I can loudly proclaim, “I told you so” from every rooftop I can find. 

Art Ross Winner: Patrick Kane

Yes I realize how rare it is in today’s nhl for a player to repeat this award, but he seems to have found serious chemistry with Panarin and Anisimov, making for the most dangerous line in hockey right now. Oh yah, he also plays with Toews on the power play too. Even if he doesn’t win it, he’s pretty much guaranteed a top 5 spot. 

Rocket Richard Winner: Steven Stamkos

The distraction that plagued him all year long last season is a thing of the past. Let’s be honest it’s either him or Ovechkin and I didn’t want to double up on every dude from last season. 

Hart Trophy Winner: Connor McDavid

If the Oilers make the playoffs how could it not be him? He is the Edmonton Oilers and is easily the most entertaining and important player in the league. 

Norris Trophy Winner: Shea Weber

Shea is currently leading the league in plus/minus and already making a big impact with his new team. The Subban trade for him didn’t make much sense at the time as Weber’s contract is pretty bad but he is still in his prime right now, which is likely why Marc Bergevin got him – the pressure is on to win now. The craziest stat I’ve seen so far: in the 10-0 blowout loss to the blue jackets, Weber had an even rating! How is it that even possible?

Calder Trophy Winner: Patrik Laine

Pretty much a toss up between him or Matthews, and since he scores more goals he’ll likely have a bigger impact. He has a deadly shot and is likely 1-2 years away from being a 40-goal scorer. 

Vezina Winner: Carey Price

There really is no doubt or question here. He’s the best goalie in the world and is pretty much a Stanley Cup away from being one of the best of all time. A healthy Carey Price is a scary thought for opponents. 

Stanley Cup Winner: Blackhawks over Canadiens

Blackhawks are rolling and don’t seem to have a weakness – plus Marian Hossa is proving that he still has enough left in the tank and last year was merely an aberration.   The Habs come out of the east with the best backend in the league: Markov, Weber, Price. You simply can’t beat that combo. 

Dark Side Picks 2017